The effects of foreign exchange and monetary policies in Russia

This paper examines the effects of Russian foreign exchange and monetary policies under conditions of abundant natural resources during the period 1999–2011 using structural VAR models. The results suggest that monetary policy shocks, which are identified as money supply disturbances, have a persistent effect on real output, and more than half of the volatility in real output can be explained by changes in the money supply. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that stock prices are a more significant transmission channel of monetary policy than bank loans. 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. * Tel.: +81 166 48 3121; fax: +81 166 48 8718. E-mail address: [email protected]. 1 Russia became the world’s largest oil producer in 2009 (BP, 2011, p. 8). 2 For example, see Choudhry (1998), Esanov et al. (2005), Oomes and Ohnsorge (2005), and Vdovichenko and Voronina (2006).